Second Wave is Here

The number of COVID cases are rising sharply across the entire state of Maharashtra. Mumbai has reported a near-doubling of number of COVID positive cases from around 350 per day to 645 per day within a week. Amravati, Nagpur, Pune and other cities in Mumbai are also reporting a significant rise in the number of cases. Over 4000 new cases have been detected in Maharashtra in the past 24 hours (14/2/2021), for the first time in over a month. In Pune, test positivity rate has almost doubled in a week, indicating a significant degree of spread in community once again. In Nagpur and Amravati, the rise in new cases has been sharp enough for the local administration to reinforce control measures and defer openings of educational institutions. The number of fresh cases has once again started exceeding the number of recovered patients in Nagpur and Vidarbha districts. In Amravati, the number of fresh cases has shot up by seven times.

All this clearly indicates that the second wave of COVID has started in earnest in Maharashtra. Complacency and carelessness has crept into the population, and this is obvious to anyone who visits public places nowadays. Hardly anyone is seen wearing a mask in rural and semi-urban areas. Even in Mumbai and other metros, people are blatantly ignoring protective measures. We are in wedding season in India. Hardly anyone is seen wearing a mask in wedding functions. Hundreds of people stuffed inside an air-conditioned hall without masks or social distancing, is a certain recipe for disaster. It is no wonder that wedding parties and vacations are acting as super-spreaders as the government has lifted curbs on mass gatherings.

Though the situation is still under control, if people do not pull up their socks and start following proper measures such as wearing a mask, maintaining social distancing and avoiding overcrowded places, we are in for big trouble in the next few weeks in Maharashtra.

47 thoughts on “Second Wave is Here

  1. This is unduly alarmist and premature.

    After each relaxation or festival period in Mumbai, there was an upsurge in cases due to increased population mixing which then got dampened at a pace depending on existing population immunity. The surge that started in Aug peaked in early Oct as most of the non-slum population was still susceptible whereas the Diwali surge in mid-Nov went back to baseline within a fortnight.

    Recently, the MH govt. allowed the general population in local trains during certain time windows and this latest surge is a consequence of that. No reason to believe it won’t match the existing pattern. This has little to do with complacency. Proper mask wearing and distancing compliance in Mumbai has always been lax, which is evident in the seroprevalence surveys – nothing’s changed on that front.

    • Undoubtedly there are local surges following relaxations. But local trains restarting in Mumbai doesn’t explain rise in Nagpur, Amravati, Nashik etc. The rise in other cities like Amravati is close to exponential and there are no local trains there. The rise can therefore be attributed to carelessness and complacences.
      I think the reopening of local trains probably didn’t matter too much as those travelling by them were already travelling in crowded buses for a month or two before trains were reopened.

      • I think better lockdown in few days in Maharashtra in 2021 it will be less covid

    • Can you explain why Pune is surging again? There’s no local train here. Mask wearing compliance is the same as it was in Nov/Dec. It’s obviously the 2nd wave.

    • There is no such standard policy but this is what is followed in many countries: After killed vaccines – if no side effects, three days. After live attenuated vaccines – if no side effects, a month.

      • It’s 14 and 28 days respectively Dr Amit as per National blood donation guidelines 2017

  2. Can people with immunosuppressant chronic disease like ulcerative colitis take the vaccine? If so, which one? Thank you

    • There is no evidence that vaccination causes exacerbation of autoimmune disorders. But due to lack of trial data on COVID vaccines, as of now it is not recommended in these conditions. People on immunosuppression can be given killed vaccines but not live attenuated ones.

      • Attenuated or killed bacteria related vaccine s, are understood. Virus is a dead protien. So this terminology is not valid.

  3. do you fear there is new strain in Maharashtra? and is it possible for the virus to mutate into a less virulent form

    • Type of strain is relevant mainly from the perspective of potential to reinfect people who have already had COVID or been vaccinated, or ability to spread more rapidly than the original strain. As of now there is no evidence to suggest a higher or lower mortality of any particular strain or inability of vaccine to prevent severe COVID in mutant strains (though there is some evidence to show reduced vaccine efficacy in SA strain for preventing mild / moderate disease). Also, treatment protocols remain unchanged across all strains.

  4. Scary. Wish the state Government & leaders were more proactive and forward thinking rather than just attempting to play to the galleries and trying to make a fast buck out of the pandemic

  5. If people let their guards down then they should be ready to face the consequences, unfortunately it’s us the health care providers who are risking their lives daily for your foolishness. Mask should be worn properly and distance must be maintained and crowded buses and weddings or any crowd is asking for disaster.

  6. Hi Dr Thadhani, is there a minimum time a person should wait before they get vaccinated for COVID 19 if they had tested positive 5 weeks ago and fully and well recovered. Precisely the dates are : 8th January symptom started. Recovered fully 22nd January. February 17th , scheduled for Vaccine through state portal. Is it safe to get the vaccine within this time frame ? Is it too soon?

  7. Our driver has come back from UP his village 2 days ago .
    His RT-PCR test done yesterday is negative.
    Do we need to quarantine him at all ??
    Please advise .
    K Patel

  8. Still may be number is tool low. Actual it is high side. Due to open for suburban and even people are no maintain distance and not wearing mask.

  9. Are patients on Hypertension therapies more prone to Covid related deaths? Irrespective of their age? Is Covid treatment (no cure) available to hypertensive patients?

    • Hypertension is a risk factor, not the therapy. Treatment for COVID is the same for hypertensives and non hypertensives, with additional treatment being given for hypertension and preventing complications related to it.

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